Japanese https://i-rich.org/?p=2256
Kawahara Shoichiro
Senior Researcher
International Research Institute of Controversial Histories (iRICH)
1.The Trump administration and China-Twaiwan relationship
In the United States, Mr. Trump took the presidential office, and the second Trump administration started. Viewing the members of the Trump administration in terms of the China-Taiwan relationship, Trump picked Mr. Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Rep. Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, as well as other senior officials, who are hard-liners on China. In Taiwan, most people expected Mr. Mike Pompeo to be reappointed Secretary of State, but it can be said that the Trump-picked lineup leaves nothing to be desired.
The China-Taiwan policy of the second Trump administration will basically follow the first -term hard line that confronted China with additional tariffs. Mr. Trump invited former Prime Minister Abe’s widow to his home and talked with her, prior to meeting with Prime Minister Ishiba, which has profound significance. One thing can be said that Mr. Trump will respect Mr. Abe’s policy-line on the diplomatic issues including how to deal with China from now on. Abe’s extremely pro-Taiwan policy was detested by the Chinese Communist Party and there was violent protest against it, which is fresh to our memory.
The great characteristic of Mr. Trump’s diplomatic policy is that he often shows little trust toward international organizations and acts unilaterally as a leader of the United States to solve the problem. Certainly, his way of dealing carries significant destructive power and is often very effective. In his first-term administration, he did not participate in the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement) promoted by Mr. Obama, his predecessor, and instead, applied the method of unilaterally sanctioning China according to the US Trade Law. China could do nothing whatsoever to cope with these measures. Considering these circumstances, some predict that Trump may withdraw from the IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework) promoted by the Biden administration, of which the United States is a Party.
On the other hand, the China-Taiwan relationships have become increasingly tense. The Chinese Communist Party regards Mr. Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s independence advocate and has been strengthening the military drill for the siege of Taiwan. In October 2024, in his presidential address marking the Double Tenth holiday (Taiwan’s National Day), President Lai referred to Taiwan as an independent state, which China regarded as totally unacceptable and conducted the largest ever military drill for the siege of Taiwan. CIA Director Burns said in February 2023 that President Xi Jinping ordered the Chinese Army to complete the preparation for invasion of Taiwan by 2027. If this is true, around 2027, China will most likely invade Taiwan.
2.The Chinese Communist Party’s scenario for the unification with Taiwan
The current key factor of the China-Taiwan relationships is the unification with Taiwan planned by the Chinese Communist Party, which has two scenarios, peaceful and military ones. These two scenarios are not to be carried out alone, but reciprocally and accordingly to the respective situation at the time.
The peaceful scenario is basically stated in the “Five-Article Common Recognition (Five Great Hopes)” agreed upon during the top meeting between Lien Chan, Chairman of the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) and Hu Jin Tao, the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2005. According to the “Five Great Hopes,” Taiwan is to be economically incorporated and become highly dependent on China and then conclude the peace agreement to complete the unification of Taiwan with China, which is exactly the Chinese Communist Party’s scenario to unify Taiwan. Mr. Ma Ying-jeou, who restored the Kuomintang government in 2008, faithfully carried out the Five Great Hopes. And in 2011, adding the finishing touch to the Five Great Hopes, Mr. Ma proposed the peace agreement across the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwanese most strongly opposed the proposition, and Mr. Ma was obliged to withdraw his proposal immediately.
Later, in 2016, Ms. Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party became the president, and the peace agreement across the Taiwan Strait was strictly sealed by the revised law that prohibits the peace agreement from being discussed as an agenda. In the following 2024, Mr. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won the presidential election and succeeded the political position held by the Tsai Ing-wen administration.
Under such circumstances, the military unification scenario came to attract the people’s attention. The Chinese Communist Party, in view of the planned military attack on Taiwan, has been rapidly increasing military strength. Communist China’s military drills expand in scale, every time one takes place, it covers Taiwan wider and wider, threatens the Taiwanese people and incites fear.
3.Mr. Trump and the strategical ambiguity
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (digital edition) in October 2024, being asked how he would respond if China should blockade Taiwan, Mr. Trump said that if China should enter Taiwan, he would impose 150% to 200% tariffs on China. Instead of immediately resorting to military force, he would counter by additional tariffs, which would totally destroy the Chinese economy. This would be an effective deterrent. When asked directly if he would employ military force to cope with the siege of Taiwan, he said that there would be no need to use military force, because Mr. Xi respects him and knows that he is extraordinary. This probably means that if the United States should use armed force, that would be far more powerful than an ordinary deployment. Mr. Trump contrasts with Mr. Biden, who immediately answered that he would when asked if he would use military force in carrying out use of force. Mr. Trump thinks it better to leave certain strategical ambiguity at the time of Taiwan emergency.
4.The recognition of Taiwan’s statehood and national security
Like in the first one, in the second Trump administration, the policy of prioritizing Taiwan will be maintained, and arms sales and other measures will be actively conducted. There is one important issue the second Trump administration may possibly face. That is the issue of the recognition of Taiwan’s statehood as former Secretary State Pompeo advocates.
On May 7, 2022, while visiting Taiwan, Mr. Pompeo said that the United States should immediately carry out what it should have carried out much sooner. That is to recognize Taiwan as a free sovereign state. He also said that the recognition of Taiwan’s statehood is the largest security for Taiwan.
Mr. Pompeo has been energetically acting to achieve that goal, lobbying the United States authorities for the recognition of Taiwan’s statehood. During a meeting at the Hudson Institute, Mr. Pompeo said he encourages US officials to visit Taiwan more often, even though doing so would incite threats from the CCP. “I hope more other senior American officials will join me in this, because I think it will create noise,” he said. “There will be angst, the Chinese Communist Party will bluster and threaten, but that clarity will provide the call for the world to accept the fundamental truth, that fundamental reality.”
That “reality” is that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country, he said.
The Chinese Communist Party does not accept Taiwan’s statehood. According to the CCP, the use of armed force against Taiwan is a domestic issue within the state called China. In other words, any use of armed force against Taiwan is a pure domestic matter and other countries should not interfere in a country’s domestic policy.
Looking at the reality of the Taiwan Strait, anyone cannot help but feel that the Chinese Communist Party’s assertion that Taiwan is part of China is a sheer sophistry. According to international law and the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, the criteria for statehood are (a) a permanent population, (b) a defined territory, (c) government and (d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states. Taiwan satisfies all these qualifications without any problem. Anyone knows Taiwan’s steady and continuous activities over the last thirty years as an independent democracy. It is undeniable that two states exist across the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Pary’s use of force against Taiwan clearly violates the United Nations Charter Article 2-4: All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
However, at present, Taiwan is not permitted to join the United Nations and is disqualified as a member of any United Nations organizations. The rights of the population of 23 million Taiwanese are damaged in many ways.
In reality, any state that intends to recognize Taiwan as a state should be fully prepared for severance of its diplomatic relationship with China as the Chinese Communist Party’s retaliatory measure. Therefore, no state is willing to recognize Taiwan’s statehood for fear of such diplomatic risk. The only state that can risk such a diplomatic disadvantage is the United States. However, the current difficult global circumstances would not allow the United States to take such a risk. It would be either when the China-Taiwan relationships are stressed to the extreme or the use of force becomes reality that the United States will step forward to recognize Taiwan’s statehood. In that case, the United States would be requested to recognize Taiwan’s statehood in view of securing the rightfulness of the use of force under the international law and obtaining due agreement from other countries of the world.
Aside from the prospect of whether the critical situation between China and Taiwan occurs during the second-term Trump administration, the recognition of Taiwan’s statehood is a crucial issue directly affecting the entire world. The United States will further deliberate the Taiwan issue from now on. It is not at all desirable to leave China’s sophistry as it is, which clearly contradicts the reality of the Taiwan Strait and violates the Taiwanese rights. While expecting Mr. Pompeo and his supporters to make further efforts, in Japan, we should promote the awareness of this issue so that the recognition of Taiwan’s statehood may be realized as soon as possible.