Japanese : https://i-rich.org/?p=2395
Kunitoshi Matsuki
Senior Researcher
International Research Institute of Controversial Histories
On the past June 3, in South Korea, the presidential election following the dismissal of President Yoon Suk Yeol was held and as mostly expected, Mr. Lee Jae-myung won and took the presidential office. I would like to state my view as to where the Lee Jae-myung Administration will head and how Japan should cope with his administration.
The birth of the despotic Lee Jae-myung Administration
One thing is certain: in South Korea, the President takes hold of all powers. Naturally, the President himself directly controls the administrative branch. President Lee appointed his men to all the important posts, such as the prime minister and the director of the top intelligence organ of the National Intelligence Service. As for the legislative body, since the ruling “Together Democratic Party” occupies the absolute majority of seats in the national legislature, bills and budget proposals and personnel proposals will easily pass the Assembly without much opposition.
How about the judicial aspect? The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Korea is appointed by the president and takes office after the approval by the National Assembly. The incumbent chief justice is conservative, but his term of office expires in June 2027, two years from now, and the next chief justice will be practically appointed by President Lee Jae-myung. Regarding the rest of the justices, nine out of the twelve justices are to be replaced due to the expiration of their terms while President Lee Jae-myung is in office. The justices of the Supreme Court are appointed by the president, following the recommendation by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and the approval by the National Assembly. Therefore, newly appointed justices are most likely to be those close to the administration.
As for the Constitutional Court, the Court is composed of nine justices, three of whom are selected respectively by the president, the National Assembly and the Supreme Court Chief Justice. Consequently, if as of June 2027, pro-president Supreme Court Chief Justice is to take office, almost all the Constitutional Court justices will be pro-President Lee Jae-myung.
The mass media, the so-called fourth power, are in the same political situation. The board members of the Korean public broadcasting stations, such as KBS and MBC, are appointed by the President on the recommendation by the governmental organ of the Korean Communications Commission (KCC). Consequently, those who align with President Lee Jae-myung’s intentions are to be elected board members, rendering the public broadcasting nothing but the advertising organ for the government. It is highly probable that the Lee Jae-myung administration will become a despotic one without any brakes.
Uniting the people through anti-Japan agitation
Serious social problems permeate South Korea, such as lingering high-unemployment rates among young people, expanding social inequality, and sharply declining birthrate rarely seen elsewhere in the world. Moreover, the national economy came to impasse, due to its heavy dependence on exports, and the economic growth rate for the first quarter of this year fell to minus 0.2 %. All these problems derive from structural failures and cannot be resolved overnight. Amid rising concerns over a fuzzy future, the people’s frustration will be directed against the Lee Jae-myung’s government.
The conservative powers within South Korea will never remain silent. In the first place, Mr. Lee Jae-myung evokes much suspicion because of his own dubious acts. Presently, he faces five lawsuits over the money he illegally sent to North Korea while in the gubernatorial office of Gyeonggi Province, and inappropriate conduct over the city development while he was a mayor of Seongnam City. Although the president has a privileged immunity from lawsuits, it is legally ambiguous whether the immunity can be applied to the cases which occurred before he became president. From now on, the conservative power will thoroughly hold the president accountable for these suspicious deeds, which have become the Achilles’ heel of the Lee Jae-myung’s government.
In the previous presidential election, over 40% of the votes were against Lee Jae-myung and if the conservative powers gain momentum and win decisively the next 2028 general election, it may be possible for the National Assembly to make a proposal to impeach President Lee Jae-myung. Although the president holds the personnel control over the Constitutional Court, if the anti-Lee Jae-myung public opinion becomes strong and the justices cater to it, the impeachment may become reality.
If President Lee Jae-myung is to avoid such “threat,” he must win the public opinion and have the ruling party dominate in the next general election. However, it is extremely difficult for the current government to achieve satisfactory results for the people in little time. Under such circumstances, there is no alternative but to turn the people’s dissatisfaction into “anger against Japan” by bringing back the historical issues, already settled in the past, inciting the anti-Japan sentiment.
Even if he voices the friendly Japan-South Korea cooperative policy line, the true nature of Mr. Lee Jae-myung is “China-friendly and anti-Japan” as seen from his past words and conduct. In his campaign promises, he clearly stated that he would “recover the honor of the former comfort women and bring about compensation as much as possible.” On the pretext of “realizing the campaign promise,” he may bring back the “comfort women issue,” which had been finally and irreversibly resolved and ask Japan for “apology and compensation.” In South Korea, a country strongly affected by anti-Japan sentiment, the more aggressively the president reacts against Japan, the more popular he becomes. And the ruling party will surely win in the next election.
His next target is the revision of the South Korean Constitution. In the Korean Constitution, the presidential term is limited to five years, without reelection. In the past, many of the consecutive presidents were judged guilty by the court after the expiration of the presidential term and met disastrous fate. Mr. Lee Jae-myung will be an ordinary person when he retires from the presidency. He is very suspicious, and it is easily foreseeable that he will be ruined, after being held accountable for several criminal deeds. To avoid such dire destiny, the only way is to become re-elected president. The South Korean president holds the right to propose constitutional revision and if Mr. Lee Jae-myung proposes, “Let us make it possible for the president to be re-elected, just like in the United States,” the proposal will probably pass. He will win the second term, resorting to every possible means under the despotic system he himself builds up and may even think of the way to the lifetime presidency.
Let’s stop the despotism through Japan-South Korea cooperation
If the government holds both legislative and judicial powers and anti-government activities are legally oppressed, there will be no freedom of speech, and the society will become no different from a socialistic regime. The danger does not stop here. The “China-friendly, and anti-Japan” political line the Lee Jae-myung administration plans to pursue will weaken the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance and in the worst scenario, it is feared that South Korea will be entirely swallowed up by China. If this becomes a reality, Japan would be obliged to directly face the hegemonic state of China, and Japan’s autonomy and independence may be threatened. To avoid such situation, the peoples of Japan and South Korea must cooperate and stop the despotic Lee Jae-myung regime, using all means.
I already mentioned that Mr. Lee Jae-myung will use “anti-Japan sentiment” to bring the Korean people together. However, this “anti-Japan sentiment” is nothing but “unjustified resentment” imprinted by anti-Japan education that distorts history. Fortunately, despite their small numbers, in South Korea, some scholars raised their voices to point out this fact. The book Anti-Japanese Tribalism written by the former professor at Seoul University Lee Younghoon concretely refutes the historical distortion in the anti-Japan education; it became a best seller in South Korea.
The claim that comfort women were “sexual slaves” taught in the anti-Japan education turned out to be not true and instead, the fact that they were simply prostitutes came to be known by many South Korean people. Civilian movements by South Koreans for the withdrawal of comfort woman statues built everywhere are expanding. In addition, more and more people gain access to various information through the Internet and come to doubt the credibility of what has been taught through the anti-Japan education.
What Japan should do is to provide an active support, so that these new waves may spread across South Korea. If South Korea wants to bring back again the historical issue, which has been resolved between the two countries, Japan must refute the claims one by one, truth by truth. If the anti-Japan historical view asserted by Mr. Lee Jae-myung is revealed to be a lie, his authority based on “anti-Japan sentiment” will fall, opening the way for the Korean conservative forces to come back. Mr. Lee Jae-myung may be impeached.
For the future of both peoples of Japan and South Korea, I, as a member of the International Research Institute of Controversial Histories, will continue to do my best. In addition, I ardently hope that the Japanese Government is determined to protect Japan’s national interest and undauntedly cope with the Lee Jae-myung administration and carry out its important responsibilities.
